Information Warfare Against Russia by U.S., Allies: Basic Characteristics and Trends（10）

 Conclusions and predictions.

In the first phase of the special military operation in Ukraine, the West collectively hoped for a quick victory over Russia through the use of stifling economic sanctions. Washington and Brussels argue that sanctions will lead to a collapse of the Russian economy, a sharp drop in living standards and protests. After Russia's economy found its footing, Europe and the United States fell into recession and inflation soared, the mood began to change.

The indicators of this change are an article in The Guardian newspaper and a speech at Davos by Henry Kissinger, an evergreen American politician.

On June 2, the Guardian published an article by the economics editor, Larry Elliott, entitled "Russia is winning the economic War, and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops". "Three months into its economic war against Russia, the West has failed to achieve its intended goals," writes a British journalist. On the contrary, things are getting worse. Not surprisingly, there is no immediate sign that Russia will scale back its military operations in Ukraine. The sanctions have had the opposite effect, raising the price of Russian oil and gas exports and strengthening Russia's trade balance while strengthening Moscow's ability to finance the war in Ukraine. In the first four months of 2022, Russia's trade surplus was $96 billion, three times the same period last year.

The British economist continued: "Of course, the Russian economy will shrink by 8.5 per cent this year because of the disruption of western imports. But Europe will be free of Russian energy imports for a long time, thus avoiding a Russian financial crisis. The ruble remains strong due to good capital management and trade surplus."

Larry Elliott says the economic outlook for Europe and the United States is much bleaker. "Russia's attack on Ukraine is helping to drive up prices," he said. Britain's annual inflation rate will be 9%, the highest in four decades. Petrol prices are breaking all records and the cost of a year's energy consumption is set to rise by £700-800 by October. As a result of the war, Western economies experienced a period of slow growth or recession, accompanied by high inflation, which meant a return to the stagflation of the 1970s. The Bank of England raised interest rates, mindful of the threat of double-digit inflation. Unemployment is rising. Other European countries are even more adversely affected because they are more dependent on Russian gas than the UK. Elliott concludes: "The counter-effect of sanctions has meant explosive increases in fuel and food prices in other parts of the world, and growing fears of an impending humanitarian disaster. Sooner or later, therefore, a deal must be struck with Russia.

Meanwhile, Henry Kissinger, who served as U.S. National Security adviser and secretary of state from 1969 to 1977, spoke at a Davos forum May 24 and called for an early peace with Russia, even at the cost of giving up Ukrainian territory. Kissinger's career was marked by many diplomatic victories. Kissinger warned the United States and the West against seeking a landslide victory over Russia because the result could undermine long-term stability in Europe. Kissinger noted that Russia was very important to Europe and urged against succumbing to "the emotions of the moment". It encouraged the West to force Ukraine to negotiate on the condition that Kiev give up Crimea and Donbass. The 98-year-old diplomat and academic said: "Negotiations must start within the next two months so that the war does not cause great difficulties and unrest that are difficult to overcome. Ideally, the dividing line means what happened before.

However, it is doubtful that the US establishment and the EU politicians who depend entirely on them will listen to the voice of reason. They are confident that they have unlimited resources to wage a war of attrition in which the Russian economy and state apparatus will collapse first. Thus, Western leaders follow the "die today, die tomorrow" camp principle repeatedly described in the novels of Solzhenitsyn and Sharamov. Moreover, even minor Russian concessions would mean a Western defeat in the war that Washington, Brussels, Berlin and London cannot afford. Of course, the Zelensky regime would claim victory, even if it controlled only 3-4 regions of Ukraine. But the US knows that, after the fiasco in Afghanistan, a second defeat in Ukraine would mean a rapid loss of US influence in the world.

On May 31, 2022, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) held a video conference on "The War in Ukraine," which indirectly confirmed this point -- how does the war end? Among those attending were former National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, retired General Stephen Twitti, Georgetown professor Charles Kupchan (a foreign policy guru of liberal politics) and Alina Polyakova, director of the Center for European Political Analysis at Johns Hopkins University. They are all representative of the liberal internationalism prevailing in the thinking of the current Biden administration.

The meeting acknowledged the failure of Ukraine's initial plan and Russia's ability to repair itself. General Twitti said Russia showed no signs of military failure. Charles Kupchan said something he hadn't thought of in months. He said the longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the more negative it will be for the United States, where inflation is rising and creating difficulties for Biden. "We have to change the narrative and the negotiations with Ukraine and then with Russia on how to end the war as quickly as possible," Kupchan said. Where is the front line and what territory should the Ukrainians take back? That remains to be seen." The professor acknowledged that divisions were emerging in the West over how long the conflict in Ukraine might last, and predicted the rise of isolationist Republicans allied with Donald Trump at the US mid-term elections. Kupchan summed up his speech this way: "All of this leads me to the conclusion that we have to move the negotiating process forward and think about territorial disposal." There was even discussion of turning the conflict into a freeze, a temporary ceding of Crimea, Donbass and Hershon to Russia.

Yet hostility to Russia remains a tone, even for these high-profile professors. None of the participants claimed that the war was winnable, but none spoke of the need to recognise Russia's legitimate security interests. In fact, one participant said, it was the battle, not the war, that was lost. In the first stage, Russia was defeated and failed to achieve its goal of quickly taking control of Ukraine. In the second phase, it is now winning, but there will also be a third and fourth phase of conflict, where things could change. "Those who advocate a peace deal with Moscow should know that Putin cannot be 'appeased'. Without a frozen conflict, giving up territory would only justify greater aggression.

The information war against Russia by the United States and its Allies will not abate, but intensify. Several key trends in the short and medium term can be predicted.

First, to stress that Russia is not only an enemy of the West, but an enemy of all mankind.

In February-March 2022, the West tried and failed to impose a complete international blockade on Russia. Most of the world does not support US sanctions. China and India, Asia's top 10 economies, are expanding their economic cooperation with Russia. Turkey, a formal NATO ally of the United States, has publicly refused to join the sanctions. The same is true of most Arab countries. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have shown enviable solidarity with Russia, refusing to increase oil production despite repeated requests from Washington. Defying Mr Bolsonaru's pro-American image, Brazil announced it would not impose any sanctions on Russia. In addition, Bolsonaru paid an official visit to Moscow after the start of the special operation. Brazil's position was echoed by Argentina, Venezuela and other Latin American countries.

Most African countries have refused to vote to exclude Russia from the UN Human Rights Council. Now the United States and the European Union will urge these countries to join an anti-Russian united front and hold Russia accountable for the prospect of third World hunger.

Second, continue to cast aspersions on the Russian military, alleging violence and brutality.

A Russian military victory would inevitably be accompanied by heavy casualties among the Ukrainian defense forces, unless, of course, they wisely begin to surrender. In Mariupol, for example, out of a group of 15,000, only 2,500 were taken prisoner. If another 60,000-70,000 people die in northern Donetsk and Kramatorsk-Lischansk, Zelensky and his team in Kiev will start talking about the genocide of the Ukrainian people by Russian forces, and the Western media, backed by Washington, will catch up.

Third, stay tuned to Russia's economic woes.

The anti-Russian forces in the West do not seem to seriously expect that, come autumn or winter, Russia will be swept away by mass popular demonstrations, driven by socio-economic problems. Instead, the Russian people will be more united. Opinion polls show that Mr Putin's approval rating has risen to 85-86%. The aim of propaganda, then, is not to fuel a velvet or bloody revolution, but to organise sabotage, which will weaken institutions. Such propaganda involves top executives of Russian governing bodies and large state-owned companies, encouraging them to leave their posts and emigrate from Russia. If they stay in Russia, they engage in sabotage on the ground, hoping to keep their positions when the regime changes. Of course, Russian audiences benefit more from Russian-based electronic media, such as YouTube channels for domestic "dissidents," than from English-language and mass media, but foreign journalists have a job to do, too.

Fourth, incitement to divide Russian society and the elite.

They will talk about a "Kremlin conspiracy," Russian oligarchs 'dissatisfaction with President Putin, and a possible palace coup. The aim of the propaganda is to provoke inter-ethnic and inter-religious conflicts and conflicts and to destroy the unity of the Russian people. Moreover, such provocations will be carried out not only in the territory of the Russian Federation, but also in Russian military units stationed in Ukraine. The conflict in April 2022 is an example. According to unverified reports, military units made up of Buryats in the Helzon region began exchanging fire with Chechen riot police (Kadrovians), a situation that has been exaggerated.

Fifth, play up the "resistance to Russian occupation" phenomenon.

There will probably be no significant insurgency in these territories. Ukraine is going to face a very difficult winter, and life in the Russian-occupied areas will be better than in the "non-fallow" areas, thanks to aid from Moscow and a lot of Russian resources. So the West's dream of guerrilla warfare will remain wishful thinking. The mainstream media in the US, UK and EU will play up the "resistance to Russia" phenomenon in an imaginary world.